Effective Software Design

Today is the last day of the year 2019. At this very moment, most people are thinking about how they are going to change next year. They are making plans for 2020. But I’m making a retrospective: I’m thinking about how did I change in 2019.

I believe that the most important change in my attitude has been to focus on learning from others’ mistakes. Previously, I was very excited about reading success stories. I discuss this change in my approach in my previous post: “Should we Learn from Success Stories?”

I also understood that avoiding mistakes is what really increases our probability of success. I stopped trying to follow rules or to adopt a formula to be successful. I discuss this idea in my previous post: “On Rules and Probabilities”

Following this change in my attitude, I started asking the question: What is the science behind bad decisions? How can we really avoid making mistakes?

Learning from Chess Games

One of the most interesting articles I read on this topic was “Data Mining Reveals the Crucial Factors That Determine When People Make Blunders“, from MIT Technology Review.

This article is based on a scientific investigation using a database of 200 million chess games. The researchers have analyzed the games to detect whether a player has made a mistake, and what were the factors that have caused this mistake.

These are some of the main insights from this article:

“Decision making is influenced by the complexity of the situation, the skill of the decision maker, and the time pressure.”

“The amount of time spent on a decision is a factor in blundering, but only up to a point. Quick decisions are more likely to lead to a blunder, but after about 10 seconds or so the likelihood of a blunder flattens out. So when players spend more time than this on a move, it is probably because they don’t know what to do.”

“The difficulty of the decision is an important factor, too. More difficult positions are more likely to lead to a blunder.”

“Skill levels have a big impact in reducing the likelihood of a blunder. In general, better players make better decisions.”

And the most surprising: The researchers “have found evidence of an entirely counter-intuitive phenomenon in which skill levels play the opposite role, so that skillful players are more likely to make an error than their lower-ranked counterparts. The team call these ‘skill anomalous positions.'”

In summary

While at this moment most people are planning to adopt formulas to increase their success rate in 2020, I’m mostly focused on avoiding mistakes to reduce my failure rate. Happy New Year!

Eventually we understand that there are no rules. There are only probabilities. There is a probability to succeed and there is a probability to fail.

No one is able to predict anything. At most one can estimate the chances of success or the risk of failure.

Similarly, it is no use making detailed plans. We can only take preventative measures to lower our risks, or prepare ourselves to the utmost to increase our chances.

We should change our focus. We should stop being obsessive about doing “the right thing”. Because even “the right thing” can fail. And because when we believe we are doing “the right thing” this gives us a false sense of safety.

We should stop trying to make “the right decision”. Because in most cases we never have sufficient information to make “the right decision”. And because we cannot really predict all the possible consequences of our decisions.

In general, critical situations are very complex, and this complexity makes them unique. Since each situation is unique, there is no predefined formula to guarantee a positive outcome. Previous experience is useful but not sufficient.

We should just try to increase our probabilities to succeed. Our we should try to reduce our risks to fail. Because there are simply too many things that we cannot control.

There are no guaranteed results. Never.

This is an uncut key. That’s how it comes from the factory.

The uncut key has the potential to open any door. But that is just a potential.

The locksmith cuts the key so that it can open a specific door. When he does this, he is setting a goal for the key.

When we are young, we also start with a huge potential. But that is just a potential.

We also need to prepare to achieve our goals. We need to define which doors we want to open!

Are you afraid to speak in public? You are not alone…

“According to most studies, people’s number one fear is public speaking. Number two is death. Death is number two. Does that sound right? This means to the average person, if you go to a funeral, you’re better off in the casket than doing the eulogy.” ― Jerry Seinfeld

Worse than Death

The fear of public speaking has been the topic of serious scientific investigation. One example is the article “Is Public Speaking Really More Feared Than Death?” by the researchers Karen Dwyer and Marlina Davidson, from the University of Nebraska at Omaha. They say:

“This study found that public speaking was selected more often as a common fear than any other fear, including death.”

But why people are so afraid of public speaking? A possible explanation is given by dr. Glenn Croston in his article “The Thing We Fear More Than Death“:

“When faced with standing up in front of a group, we break into a sweat because we are afraid of rejection. And at a primal level, the fear is so great because we are not merely afraid of being embarrassed, or judged. We are afraid of being rejected from the social group, ostracized and left to defend ourselves all on our own. We fear ostracism still so much today it seems, fearing it more than death, because not so long ago getting kicked out of the group probably really was a death sentence.”

Everybody Wants to be a Great Speaker

If people in general are so afraid of public speaking, it is a paradox that so many people would like to be public speakers. Many books try to help people to become better speakers, and some of them are real best-sellers, such as “Talk Like TED: The 9 Public-Speaking Secrets of the World’s Top Minds” by author Carmine Gallo. This is how the book is presented at Amazon:

“In his book, Carmine Gallo has broken down hundreds of TED talks and interviewed the most popular TED presenters, as well as the top researchers in the fields of psychology, communications, and neuroscience to reveal the nine secrets of all successful TED presentations. Gallo’s step-by-step method makes it possible for anyone to deliver a presentation that is engaging, persuasive, and memorable.”

Very nice. But does it really need to be so complicated? Do we really need to understand “psychology, communications and neuroscience” to become better speakers?

My Secret

So, what is the secret to become a good speaker? How can you defeat your fear to face an audience?

My approach is very simple: I try to speak in public as much as possible. Actually in general I seize most opportunities I’m given to speak in public. As a result, after several years speaking in public frequently, in general I’m not afraid anymore.

In 3 words: Practice Makes Perfect!

Below some pictures of audiences I faced this month: South Korean students visiting the Technion and Brazilian students participating in the Taglit project. I did not fear talking to them. Actually it was lots of fun!

Technion

Taglit

I really like this picture, because it makes me think about the meaning of leaving our Comfort Zone. I’m not sure that we always feel fear when we step outside our Comfort Zone. Very often I experience excitement when I have new challenges, and a lack of challenges causes boredom.

What I like the most is the idea that when we are in the Learning Zone we are actually expanding our Comfort Zone. This is a very powerful concept: if we want to grow, we must learn. Unfortunately many jobs require lots of effort but offer few learning opportunities, so that people work hard but don’t really grow.